Sunday, February 20, 2011

Analyst: Tablet Makers Severely Overestimating Demand

Analyst: Tablet Makers Severely Overestimating Demand, article.
I've seen a lot of crowded tech categories before, but this is comical … There are an estimated 80 to 100 new tablet models in development.

I love to say I Told You So. I saw this coming half a year ago.
But then it doesn't take a genius to see that when Apple again makes a super-hyper-successful new kind of device, every maker and his half-wit brother will try to make one too, never mind that the chances of success are less than that of winning in the lottery.
Like an observer said: it's like watching six-year-old soccer players all crowding around the ball. Implied: a good soccer player positions himself where the ball will be, not where it is right now, and so it is with business and every game in life.

Perhaps this crowding will push prices downwards, but how much is yet to be seen.
This article says some peculiar things.
...tablets are going to be so popular that it’s safe to have higher price points, but this may not be how it actually plays out.
Of course, many will counter by pointing at the sales of the iPad, but I believe that this is an anomaly (again, one that exists in part due to the blind loyalty of the Apple fanbase).

Huh? Apple selling on blind loyalty? I think not. The iPad and iPhone is selling to millions of people who never had a Mac. And if it were the case, Apple would never have fiascos like the Cube computer.

I also think that $500 for an iPad is very reasonable indeed, both regarded as what it costs to make, and at what it can do. The iPad is spectacularly capable, and can do many things we couldn't do before, or had to pay thousands of dollars to do.
Maybe we are getting spoiled very fast?

Here are some thoughts and links on these and related matters by the worthwhile John Martellaro.

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